Recently, on the withdrawal of all U.S. combat troops from Iraq, the Israeli media, former U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton Doulou out the amazing words: “Israel has ’8 days’ time to launch a military strike against nuclear facilities in Bushehr, Iran, Tehran to stop nuclear power plant operation. “His words immediately stirred a global outcry. In fact, the United States to prove safety has long been Iran’s already planning ahead, the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq and pave the way for the attack on Iran.
The United States for 30 years in Iran as a hard blow against the soft foundation
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the United States began sanctions and blockade of Iran has so far lasted 30 years, U.S. and Iraqi military strength is already one-sided.
Seriously undermine the sanctions and blockade of Iran’s war machine. Sanctions against Iran is not limited to the nuclear field, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Iran’s industry, finance and other fields, aims to weaken Iran’s economic and military strength. Today, the United States to mobilize more and more tight sanctions against Iran. June 9 this year, the UN Security Council started a new round of sanctions against Iran, the prohibition against the export to Iran of all countries of tanks, fighter planes and warships and other heavy weapons against Iranian ballistic missile development and participation in international nuclear content in the field of investment , also listed in the annex to the resolution would be to freeze assets of more than 40 Iranian economic entity.
In addition, the United States, the European Union and Australia also unilaterally impose more severe sanctions, leading to Iran’s key industrial technology and equipment for lack of weakening the war machine. The most obvious is a major oil producing countries as Iran, but also heavily dependent on imported gasoline; Iran aviation industry is still using the old Russian-made map -154 models, leading to frequent air crashes. As a result, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s weapons and equipment behind, still in the mechanized and semi-mechanized state of the combat effectiveness of the slow process of modernization, the U.S. military has the technological advantages of non-symmetric.
In addition, the United States also strongly support the Iranian opposition. The United States and Iran share a common language of the opposition is against the Iranian regime. In 2007, the Bush Administration has allocated 75 million U.S. dollars to support the Iranian opposition’s “democratic transition.” Obama was raised to support the Government of Iran of human rights and national freedom of voice, to find ways to support the Iranian opposition in the green movement. Radio Monte Carlo, according to French reports, in July last year, the U.S. Senate passed the “Bill to support the victims of Iran’s check,” millions of dollars allocated to support the Iranian opposition, the Iranian government on the opposition to break the news, communication and networking, etc. suppression. During Iran’s presidential election, supporters of the Iranian opposition leader Moussaoui repeatedly launched protests. These forces will subvert the Iranian regime the United States after the administrative team.
At the same time, the United States has completed the military siege on Iran. Since the Gulf War, the United States has step by step to complete the encirclement of Iran. Surrounding areas in Iran, the United States through the Gulf War, the “defender of peace and stability,” the identity of Tuen Army Kuwait; they use “9.11″ to “protection against terrorism,” as control of Afghanistan; the war in Iraq, to “overthrow the dictatorship of the liberator” status occupation of Iraq, together with allies Saudi Arabia and Israel to help secretly helped out, basically completed surrounded on three sides of Iran.
At present, around Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and other U.S. military bases were. Ride in the Persian Gulf, “Eisenhower” was, “Stanislav” number and “Bataan” aircraft carrier battle group in the Indian Ocean, “boxer” was a helicopter carrier battle groups in the Arabian Sea, “Charles de Gaulle” aircraft carrier battle group, has formed a military strike against Iran’s pre-deployment. In addition, the Diego Garcia U.S. military has also deployed a new “Ohio”-class missile submarines, and hundreds of pieces of “bunker bombs.” Once the needs of about two weeks you can focus on three aircraft carrier battle groups, from the east, south and west sides direct attack.
U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities is ready to fly together
This year in July, the Israeli series of sending senior officials to lobby the United States, urged the United States for its military action against Iraq a “green light.” Analysts believe that as Iran’s major nuclear facilities were reinforced, and are hidden in the ground or the mountains, may not be a unilateral Israeli raid in the United States to the possibility of joint is relatively large.
Various indications, the United States to combat drill ready. Recently, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff claims to have developed operational plans against Iran, while Israel opened an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities shelf. In fact, Israel has already held several attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities secret exercise. This year in June, Israel sent more than 100 fighters lasted three days, held a large-scale military exercises. According to the British “Times” on June 12 disclosure, Saudi Arabia has agreed to the northern Israeli warplanes to use its air corridor, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, which will significantly reduce the range of Israeli warplanes.
In fact, the United States to a greater advantage is well aware of Iran’s military. According to the Associated Press June 22 Xinhua, Israel launched a named “Horizon -9″ spy satellites, in order to enhance the surveillance capabilities of Iran and other countries. Department of Defense said in a statement: “Horizon -9″ high-resolution satellite camera can distinguish between carrying out ground missiles and launchers, the satellite will orbit the earth has been running the other two “Horizon” series of spy satellites operating synergies and strengthen sensitive region covering a large area. Can be said that the United States and Israel have launched a surveillance operation against Iran before the war.
When the U.S. aircraft carrier battle group entered the Persian Gulf a big way, the United States against Iran has opened a “second front.” Iran’s border areas are complicated ethnic and sectarian, ethnic separatist forces and the existence of anti-government militants. The United States has already publicly funded to provide these guerrilla arm to stir up civil strife in Iran. Among them, the United States strongly supports “the PKK” guerrilla arm, “Allah Brigade” and “People’s Mujahideen” have to regard them as U.S. interference in Iran’s strategic pawn. In recent years, occurred several times in Iran for military and senior government officials in the assassinations, bombings, fully reflecting the hostile forces in Iran have shown a sharp rise. In response, Fred Burton, former U.S. State Department official said bluntly: “The recent attacks took place in Iran and the United States through assistance and training to armed groups in Iran to undermine the efforts of the Iranian regime is the same.”
At the same time, the United States has also completed a deal with missile attacks on Iran’s anti-missile defense deployment. Past few years, Israel and Lebanon, “Hezbollah” military conflict, the United States stepped up its anti-missile system in Iran is advancing around the deployment of missile defense base attempt in the Middle East Dajian prevent Fanyi Lang hit because of its nuclear facilities and “Shoot the Neighbor . ” According to military experts, the Pentagon revealed that there are four Gulf Arab countries agreed to accept U.S. ground-based “Patriot -3″ missile defense system, namely, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. Within these four countries, a total of 8-air missile launchers deployed position, can be “effective short-range surface-to-down launch of Iran.” Saudi Arabia and Israel in the region already has a more advanced air missile defense system. U.S. military officials said the land has been formed in the Middle East region more multi-dimensional, “Patriot” air missile defense deployment, sea-based aspects of the U.S. “Aegis” warships offshore in Iran also stepped up patrols in the campaign level .
The international community should take the new situation and are prepared to deal with the Middle East
The next war breaks out, not only Iran and the Middle East is bound to be a strong shock, and will lead to a series of international chain, a number of countries will not be consciously involved in the war. Today, disaster-ridden history of the war in Iraq taught us lessons of the international community need to make the new situation and are prepared to deal with the Middle East, strategic preparation, or they will repeat the same mistakes.
Here, we must first prepare for war with a vast new humanitarian disaster. History has repeatedly proved that war almost always caused serious humanitarian disaster. Oxford Research Group on July 15 issued a “military strike against Iran: the extent and effects of” report that the war between Iran and Israel is inevitable, but war will last long. As to who wins and who loses, the report that the civilians would be the biggest losers. Responsible for writing the report, Paul Rogers has been surprisingly accurate prediction of the course of the war in Iraq in early 2003, he wrote, “Iraq: the consequences of military strikes,” the report, that “the U.S. military early in the invasion quickly to win, but will bring a large number of civilian casualties, and then into a lasting anti-US armed attacks, ‘base’ organizations will be wide support, but anti-American sentiment spread in the world. ”
Rogers believes that the Israel and the United States is likely to launch pre-emptive air strike against Iran, according to the density calculation of the bombing war in Kosovo against Iran at least 4,000 fighters. Iran is the land regardless of size, population size and overall strength of more than Iraq, and are well prepared to fight a protracted war. Can be expected, once the war with Iran, the United States to be the first system and counter-escalation, Iraq and Afghanistan have been expected to calm the battlefield will be re-involved in war, this war would be quickly converted to local regional war. If the next war stalemate, is not only the war would consume far more than the war in Iraq and Afghanistan wars, will be upgraded to a humanitarian disaster.
Even more alarming is that once an attack is likely to lead to the Iranian nuclear leak, nuclear pollution, will result in the leakage of the Chernobyl nuclear tragedy, are more likely to lead to proliferation of Iranian nuclear installations would create a major international security impact. It can be expected that a large number of civilian casualties, the surging tide of refugees and serious environmental damage, the international community will be under tremendous pressure, the United Nations peacekeeping and rescue operations will also face enormous difficulties.
Furthermore, we should be ready to face retaliation after the war between Iran and Israel in areas long-term instability. Iran and Israel was originally a pair of enemies. 2008, Iran successfully test can cover all of Israel’s improved “Shahab -3″ medium-range ballistic missile. Late last year, Israel attack on Iran nuclear program was revealed, Iran immediately reacted strongly. Iranian Defense Minister Vahidi that Iran has made all preparations for military action against Iran if Israel dares to Iran will not hesitate to arsenal and Israel against nuclear facilities.
There are military experts warn, even though Iran is not the U.S. military in conventional war with the rival, but Iran will sabotage, assassinations retaliate. The foreseeable future after the war, between Iran and Israel’s retaliation will be no peace in the Middle East region into turmoil. At the same time, Iran may launch Islamic Jihad, the use of the Shiite Muslim influence, encouraging anti-American Iraqi militants launched a wave of Hezbollah militants at the same time using attacks on Israel. Finally, Iran will maintain the power of intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States will fall into more frustration on many fronts. In this way, Iraq, Lebanon and other countries and organizations will be involved in the conflict, the Iranian war will turn into protracted Islamic world and Western countries a large melee.
Finally, we need to prepare for the Middle East oil production and shipping are fighting the destruction caused by the situation of the global economic shocks. Related to the economic security of the world oil security, the Middle East is the world’s energy lifelines. Can be expected, if the war in Iraq, it will definitely affect oil and gas fields in the Gulf region, Strait of Hormuz would be blocked both sides to cut off oil from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean transportation arteries. Once the sea or into a protracted war to expand, to connect Europe and Asia, Africa and the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf into a strategic maritime access to critical situation, the convoy in Somalia now than more difficult. Today, the international navy in the Gulf of Aden to escort action against a handful of pirates have been costly, and still busy in the tainted. The future of Iraq will enable the international community to take up maritime naval escort huge burden. Not only to the Middle East region’s economy and security, also affected patterns of international relations and strategic evolution. Once the paralysis of the Middle East oil transport industry, will lead the world’s energy crisis, it could trigger a global economic crisis, leading to global shocks.
Frequently hold military exercises near Iran’s external “Sword”, and made public a variety of new weapons to demonstrate defense hard power, which one called “Storm” helicopter gunship is especially noteworthy. Israeli media that the armed Iran, despite the US-made helicopters “Cobra” helicopter “cottage Edition”, but its operational performance is worse than than the original.