Recently, the East Asia and Southeast Asia, one of the most influential think-tank, Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, published a report entitled “the power of the ever-changing distribution of the South China Sea: the impact of treatment and to avoid conflict,” the report . The report detailed analysis of the South China Sea neighboring countries in recent years, the balance of power changes, claiming that China’s Nansha Islands YONGSHU reefs deployed within a type known as the J-17C radar for the state to provide early warning capacity; still Paracel Islands within the Yongxing Island of the anti-ship cruise missile installations to establish and support China’s cause of fighting naval military operations in the Nansha Islands in the front line post.Nanhai People’s Liberation Army to deploy J-17C radar warning capabilities to enhance
The report notes that in Asian countries, China’s military power is no doubt among the brightest and best. Although the eighties of the last century, China deeply the pain of budget and isolated, but since the nineties of the last century, China’s military modernization began, the navy to expand the scope of logistics support. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the annual report issued in 2007 and even China as Asia’s number one, ranked fourth in the world – after the United States, Britain and France – the country’s arms procurement.
The report said, and now the focus of China’s border defense to switch from the transfer of land and sea combat capability has significantly increased. Downsizing forces on the ground at the same time, China’s naval power projection capabilities have been significantly increased. Their procurement of new weapons systems, adjust the structure of the armed forces, from the Russian destroyers and submarines purchased to improve its South China Sea Fleet’s amphibious warfare capability. The seventies of last century, the South China Sea Fleet is a fleet strength of the weakest, twenty years later, it’s strength even in the absence than other fleets, but also with the other fleet is already flat.
The Chinese Navy is continuing to expand its conventional submarine capabilities (Song-class and Yuan-class, and Kilo-class submarines), and further develop its small-scale nuclear-powered submarines. At present, it has purchased, including Russian-built “modern” class, including a large number of destroyers and frigates. In 2006, the U.S. Defense Department assessment that the Chinese navy has about 75 major surface warships, 55 attack submarines and 50 amphibious ships. In 2009, the U.S. Defense Department assessment that China had about 26 destroyers, 51 frigates, 58 diesel-electric submarines, and eight nuclear-powered submarines.
In addition, the report also said China is also increasing their contribution to the South China Sea the reef, the island of control. It has to consolidate the Navy’s Mischief Reef and other islands in the United States military facilities, equipped with air defense and naval guns, as well as helipads. In addition, China’s Nansha Islands in Yongshu reefs deployed a J-17C radar for the state providing early warning capability. It is reported that China is still within the Yongxing Island Xisha established anti-ship cruise missile installations. The report said, China will Yongxing Island in the Nansha Islands as to support its military operations inside the front post, the island’s runway has been lengthened.
The report notes that the Chinese navy is also in Sanya, Hainan Province, the construction of underground nuclear submarine base. The base can accommodate up to 20 nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers and other power projection vessels, can greatly enhance China’s strategic presence in the South China Sea and the military. This projection of China’s military power or control to the South China Sea area is particularly important in this piece. Territorial disputes with China, the existence of national and Japanese submarine in the South China Sea, China is very concerned about the increased activity, while the Chinese submarine is precisely the increased activity of U.S. naval forces in the region and the existence of a challenge. In addition to the Chinese navy’s operations, there are reports that China is a large-scale construction of new coastal patrol vessels. Related reports pointed out that the class coastal patrol ship equipped by the paramilitary groups, used to patrol the South China Sea.
Report points out that, obviously, China’s military buildup in the South China Sea is not only used to avoid or eliminate use of force (if necessary) any violation of its territorial sovereignty of disputed areas, other push factors include the building of the Chinese Navy to protect China’s maritime security, to ensure that their economic prosperity and energy supply, but to do these things need to protect sea lines of communication in Southeast Asia (the Straits of Malacca and Singapore Strait, the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait), and the South China Sea for the transport routes. In the past few years, as China’s crude oil transport vessels rushed to the increase in transportation volume has increased rapidly. Therefore, the South China Sea, where possible outbreak of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the importance of the public should also be noticed. Of particular note, the Beijing government will now set his sights on a naval blockade strategy, which is intended to limit short-term U.S. military can provide assistance to Taiwan beyond the sea.
The report said, despite the growing Chinese military power, but access to new technology, China still needs some time to these technologies into the army of existing technologies. In addition, China does not have the waters far from land bases within the ongoing operations. Moreover, the Chinese right now do not have the strength of the aircraft carrier battle groups could be projected. However, according to a Chinese senior military officer said the People’s Liberation Army to build a future aircraft carrier. In November 2008, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office In an interview with Major General Qian Lihua, “Financial Times” interview, said that any of the Navy a big country dreams of one or more of the aircraft carrier has. It is worth noting that, the South China Sea Islands, the majority of islands are too small, can not become a base for further development of naval operations. As a result, control of the South China Sea is China’s sea lines of communication may be advantages of the Asia Pacific region the only way to the sea. Therefore, it should be controlled to produce only limited military zones Keys and control maritime communications lines and different look. Obviously, the latter are more strategic significance.
South China Sea tilt the balance of power is shifting in China
Nevertheless, in order to understand the changes in the South China Sea countries military strength, it is necessary from the relative value of the intentions and the possible role of the armed forces on the evaluation. Compared with the Southeast Asian countries, China does have a significant military advantage, but this advantage is still growing. For example, China has the region’s largest submarines, and fighter force. This is so that the construction of nuclear submarine base on Hainan Island’s move to the response to the South China Sea disputes are becoming very important.
Moreover, the report also said that construction of the South China Sea Fleet is also the focus of attention of other Southeast Asian countries, although the fleet-building process step by step – because the activities of the fleet’s geographical area is the South China Sea should be logical. In those from China in the Spratly Islands in the action feel threatened countries, Vietnam and the Philippines, the feelings of the most obvious. At present, the South China Sea tilt the balance of power is shifting in China, which could have a direct conflict in the South China Sea will have strategic impact: its will to suppress debate on Paracel Islands may also be in the escalating dispute over the Nansha Islands to take action.
Reported that, at this stage, even as Vietnam’s most powerful nation in Southeast Asia and do not have to compete with China’s military strength. At present, insufficient to support Vietnam’s sea power in the South China Sea will. However, since the mid-20th century, 90 years, Vietnam began its navy and air force modernization. This year in April, the Vietnamese government announced that its likely to purchase six Russian-made, “Kilo” class submarine. Moreover, Vietnam is expected to build its naval aviation capabilities to enhance its naval forces. Nevertheless, Vietnam is still the old platform, and the lack of funds and other problems.
However, the report continued to state that the existence of territorial dispute with China in other countries the situation worse than Vietnam. The Philippines, for example, although the Philippine Government’s efforts to modernize its armed forces and upgrade its equipment, but the Philippine naval and air forces are still weak. However, the naval forces in the region of the country’s most ill-conceived course ought to Brunei. To date, the Brunei Government has yet to establish any military presence in the Spratly Islands, nor to any declaration of sovereignty. However, Brunei has also begun to upgrade its military equipment. Finally Malaysian navy construction relatively smoothly. With other Southeast Asian countries, Malaysia is also trying to enhance its naval forces – in September of this year, Malaysia’s purchase of the first ships French “Scorpene” class submarines.
Reported that, in addition to the relative military weakness, the Southeast Asian countries received foreign military aid did not help them balance China’s influence in the South China Sea. In this case, the only counterbalance China’s military capabilities and perhaps only the United States, especially in Japan, Hong Kong, the U.S. Seventh Fleet in Yokosuka. However, the U.S. Government has repeatedly stressed that, with the Philippines in August 30, 1951 signed the “Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty” did not involve the sovereignty of the Philippines declared areas. Moreover, although since July 11, 1995 United States and Vietnam established diplomatic ties, bilateral relations have greatly improved, but so far not been in Vietnam and the United States to establish formal or tacit alliance. Moreover, whether or not to establish the actual alliance with Vietnam, Washington has so far remained reluctant involvement in Vietnam’s territorial disputes.
In this regard, the report’s analysis, the United States was reluctant to neighboring South China Sea to provide assistance in these countries not to abandon this strategic area, but because of reluctant involvement in the issue of jurisdiction. Although the United States has been closely following the development of South China Sea, but consistently limit its maintenance in the South China Sea, the extent of freedom of navigation and the Seventh Fleet mobility. Therefore, it is not clear that if the South China Sea conflict, the United States will provide Taiwan or the Philippines, to what extent help.
