Because of the Korean Peninsula, “Tian An” incident repeated stress, while the US-ROK joint military exercises are being conducted in full swing rare scale. The United States and Han Yaowu situation in Northeast Asia will be what impact? China military exercises will also be considered as an imaginary enemy? Morning News reporters Jiu Zhe and Xie Wenti dialogue senior South Korean government think tank, Institute of Foreign Affairs, Professor Paul Jin Xinggui grown up in Dalian.
The United States to increase investment to placate South Korean military exercises
Reporter: In your opinion, this time the US-ROK joint military exercise in comparison with the previous exercise routine What is the difference?
Jinxing Gui: The US-ROK military exercise with the former models, are derived from the “Tian An” incident from happening. This time, larger than previous exercises, “Tian An” incident, the ROK hoped that allow North Korea to understand that if the North Korean military provocation, then again, the ROK-US alliance have the ability to combat.
Before the Security Council discussed the situation in the Korean Peninsula issue, the U.S. position is inconsistent with South Korea. “Tian An” incident, the South Korea hopes to put more pressure on North Korea, but at this point the attitude of the United States more cautious at first. But the United States now think that, by increasing the input of this exercise will enable the South Korean government to understand the United States supports South Korea’s attitude remains unchanged.
Reporter: “Tian An” incident on the Korean Peninsula and what impact?
Jinxing Gui: After the death of President Kim Dae-jung, the visiting North Korean delegation had an invitation to the current President Lee Myung-bak, hope he can go to North Korea visit to the North-South summit dialogue, while South Korea is also very much like high-level direct dialogue with Kim Jong Il. “Tian An” incident took place, led by Cheong Wa Dae Lee, the first South Korean military and the people did not want to target the DPRK, for which even the South Korean Defense Ministry had issued a warning.
In the “Tian An” incident in the survey, with the exclusion in addition to South Korea, the United States and China is suspect. With the gradual in-depth investigation, Cheong Wa Dae is not believed to be North Korea from the initial to gradually identify the culprit is none other than non-Korean.
Among the evidence is still some uncertainty, but assault weapon to determine if North Korea most likely. However, that did not get China, Russia, other countries support, allowing South Korean government some embarrassment.
South Korean government did not think North Korea would be so bold and reckless, South Korea’s military has so greatly humiliated, they desperately want to pass a large-scale military exercise, so people look at their strength.
North Korea and South Korea have no power to wage war
Reporter: South Korea has no worries over the US-ROK military exercise will give North Korea a huge boost, so that the DPRK respond to extreme, lead to escalation of tension, there we all want to see the situation, even the possibility of war?
Jinxing Gui: If China and the United States against the outbreak of the Korean Peninsula is not the Civil War. North Korea and South Korea is in fact no power to start a war. Korean War 50 years of the 20th century, but also because of the involvement of external forces only labeled as.
North Korea’s present economic and military power are not enough to pose a threat to South Korea, but North Korea has nuclear weapons, and this is the surrounding countries and the United States are not willing to see.
Reporter: U.S. and South Korea to pressure North Korea through military exercises, hoping to achieve what purpose?
Jinxing Gui: The purpose of the United States is very clear, hope exercise pressure to force North Korea back to six-party talks at the negotiating table, to contain North Korean nuclear weapons development program, which is also consistent with the interests of US-ROK alliance.
After U.S. and South Korea are also very hopeful that the talks, dialogue, so that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program, but unfortunately this approach for now is a sterile, U.S. and South Korea have already lost patience with North Korea, it also hopes to change a means of warning the DPRK by a large-scale military exercises, its pressure, thereby allowing the DPRK to make concessions in order to maintain the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and stability.
Reporter: Do you think the way to exercise pressure on the dialogue more effective than What?
Jinxing Gui: I can only hope that exercise pressure on North Korea make concessions, but it is really difficult.
The Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the situation remains critical
Reporter: In your opinion, this exercise will be the Korean Peninsula to have any effect?
Jinxing Gui: The situation in the Korean peninsula, involving South Korea, North Korea, China, the United States and other interests of all parties.
By the US-ROK military exercise is to force North Korea back to negotiating table and make concessions, to curb its nuclear development, but North Korea will not easily give up this point, so the key to the future direction of the peninsula, or the nuclear issue.
After the exercise, if North Korea still refuses to give up nuclear weapons and the international community to continue its assistance if the situation on the Korean Peninsula is difficult to alleviate.
Korea for the exercises, the views of the situation in the peninsula itself is varied, South Korea has the ability to develop its own nuclear weapons if North Korea continues to insist on developing nuclear weapons, South Korean people feel the pressure and in dangerous circumstances, it may also turn to support their development of nuclear weapons, which is concerned for the situation on the peninsula is very dangerous.
Through this exercise, on the surface there is a big difference between China, but both China and the United States, do not want to upgrade the Korean peninsula nuclear issue, and hope that the Korean Peninsula, maintain a stable state, in This point is consistent with U.S. interests.
China’s attitude to South Korea’s unexpected exercises
Reporter: in China, whether the people or the number of military leaders, believe that the US-ROK military exercise in the opportunity to test the Chinese, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has strongly and repeatedly against the military exercises that position, how do you view China’s position?
Jinxing Gui: I think “to China as the imaginary enemy” argument is a misunderstanding. South Korea’s first deployment of the military exercises, there is no well-considered attitude to China, Korea, government officials and military leadership also had no idea China’s attitude is so strong, which makes some unexpected Korea.
The main exercise area, previously expected by the West Sea (Yellow Sea) transferred to the East Sea (Sea of Japan), but also to South Korean people feel a bit awkward. The Korean case, the site selection in the west, the purpose is to give Korea a greater deterrent.
70s in the 20th century, there have been a U.S. military officer killed in the incident, denied that Kim Il Sung as the DPRK is, when the U.S. and South Korea chose to hold military exercises in the East China to pressure North Korea.
The “Tian An” incident severity of a greater impact than that, the past is in the East China Sea exercises, this time South Korea will hope to go further, to the exercise site on the West Sea. South Korea to consider standing position, the ROK does not want to pose a threat to China.
In fact the first U.S. aircraft carrier did not want to participate in the exercises, South Korea in order to have a greater deterrent against North Korea only strongly urge the carrier to the. But if the United States to use this exercise to test the Chinese words, but also a possibility, but this is not the purpose of the ROK.
China’s South China Sea, Yellow Sea, including the exercise involved in the issue, have been implicated with the interests of the United States. Prior to the United States is not clear China’s “line” drawn on where to use this exercise, they see China’s tough attitude, but also the concept of China’s core interests more clearly.
Reporter: What do you think of this exercise would result in Sino-ROK relations rift Why?
Jinxing Gui: China-ROK relations and the development of friendship is necessary, but by the “Tian An” incident of the two governments, two people’s feelings a little hurt, I hope to eliminate misunderstanding through dialogue between the two governments.
