Just past the “9.18 Incident” 79 anniversary of the march, in order to divert the Chinese government and Chinese people’s great restraint and a little under the waves of fashion. The same day, the Japanese Embassy in Beijing 50 meters away to the entrance cordoned off, after the first batch of marchers through the cordon, the cordon was later caught a procession to protest outside the restraint. However, China’s restraint in return is the Japanese decided to defer a Chinese fishing boat captain.

As Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on September 21 meeting in New York and other overseas Chinese living in America have said, Japan has not released the Chinese captain, has “aroused the anger of all Chinese people at home and abroad.” At present, the Chinese counter-measures against Japan to further upgrade, while Japan may therefore bear the loss of only one word to describe: only itself to blame.

“Counter measures” escalating

September 19, in the China captain Zhan Qixiong  illegal detention for 10 days, a Japanese court approval, will extend its 10-day detention period. Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya of China said that day, such as Japan insisted, the Chinese side will take a strong “counter-measures”, which bear all the consequences from the Japanese side.

After the collision, including State Councilor Dai, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya of China, including officials have repeatedly warned Japan not to play with fire. From the wording of the Chinese position “reserved the right to make further reaction” to “the overall situation of Sino-Japanese relations will have a severe impact” and on to the previous “unconscionable Japan if they continue, will suffer” until the “anti- control measures, “the formation of increasing pressure on Japan.

In fact, the “counter-measures” of the “hit” than “export” much earlier. As early as September 9, China has sent to the Diaoyu Islands waters fishery enforcement vessels to protect the Chinese fishermen; September 11, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said China has decided to postpone the scheduled mid-September at the second East China Sea issue consensus on the principles of intergovernmental negotiations; September 14, the Chinese side also announced to defer to the Secretary-General of the NPC delegation headed by Li Jianguo visit to Japan; September 19, series of moves Chinese: suspended above provincial and ministerial level bilateral exchanges, suspension of the two sides to increase flights to China and Japan to expand aviation rights of contact, delay in the comprehensive meeting on the coal, to postpone the Shanghai World Expo 1000 will be invited to the activities of Japanese youth to visit … …

China’s “counter-measures” did not end there. 20, the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee of China Li Zhaoxing, the provisional decision not to attend the China-Japan held in Nanjing Qiye Jia forums; 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Premier Wen Jiabao attended the United Nations in New York during the series of meetings, not with Japan Leaders at the meeting.

In addition, there are media reports that China has delivered equipment for the East China Sea gas field Chunxiao may be unilateral exploitation. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said in response to the oil and gas field China has full sovereignty and jurisdiction over the activities of the Chinese entirely reasonable and legitimate.

Some analysts said China’s measures to counter the escalating Japan, that China has been Japan’s stubborn errors intolerable.

Sino-Japanese relations hit rock bottom

Experts generally believe that with the Chinese side suspended the provincial level or above with the Japanese exchanges, the Sino-Japanese relations have plunged into an unprecedented slump. Deputy Director of Institute of Japanese Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Gao Hong in a media interview that “suspension of the Sino-Japanese political relations provincial level or above, is the normalization of diplomatic relations 38 years, never had.”

The deterioration of relations between the two countries, is undoubtedly the most damage between the two countries and make unremitting efforts to lay the foundation had just the strategic mutual trust. For reasons known Sino-Japanese relations is both sensitive and complex, so whether it is China or Japan, are taking the strategic mutual trust and political trust and the development of bilateral relations as one of the most important. Both sides know that if the strategic mutual trust and weaken to a certain extent, both in the territorial dispute on the issue, there are grudges in the history of the country, even the peaceful coexistence are more difficult, not to mention the development of relations.

Just before the arrival of this storm suddenly, Sino-Japanese relations has been through a very hopeful period. In 2006, he continuously visited the Yasukuni Shrine, and therefore cold snap led to Sino-Japanese relations, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi stepped down, his successor, Shinzo Abe, the prompt start of “ice-breaking trip” to visit China, Sino-Japanese relationship has ended up to 5 years silence ushered in a turning point. The following year, Premier Wen Jiabao to Japan to “melt the ice.” “Ice-breaking” and “ice-melting” trip the two made “Sino-Japanese joint communique” between the two countries established a strategic relationship of mutual benefit. In 2008, Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to Japan, the two sides signed the “Sino-Japanese strategic and mutually beneficial relationship forward on a comprehensive joint statement,” Sino-Japanese relations to a new starting point.

In less than two months ago, the Sino-Japanese East China Sea gas fields just beginning to negotiate development issues. Although the two sides as early as in 2008, the negotiations had reached an agreement, but shelved for two years before opening talks. Therefore, the negotiations have caused high expectations for the Japanese media and civil society; in less than a month ago, in just the third time at high-level economic dialogue and cooperation documents were signed 7.

However, the original full-speed forward bilateral relations, as Japan on the Diaoyu Islands issue of provocation and rapid braking.

Japan will bear the economic loss

China’s economic level, some counter-measures, estimated to also make some Japanese “pain.”

Tsinghua University, Liu Jiangyong Japanese experts told “World News” interview, pointed out that Japan is to promote economic recovery and jobs, increasing exports to China and attract Chinese tourists is essential, in such circumstances to take a tough stance Japan will only suffer. In addition, the Japanese government is currently deep in debt, once the deterioration of bilateral relations, Japan is bound to further strengthen the arms, raise the military budget, livelihood and employment for the financial expenditure will be subject to any restrictions and impact on Japan’s long-term development is clearly negative.

China is now Japan’s largest trading partner and largest export market. In 2009, bilateral trade volume hit by the financial crisis, the case of negative growth, still reached 228.8 billion U.S. dollars. Tang Chunfeng Chinese scholars estimate that nearly 10 million businesses in Japan depends mainly on the Chinese market survival, Japan’s dependence on the Chinese market more than on the European and American economies, roughly estimated at more than 40%. On the other hand, Japan has been China’s demand for a large variety of resources, such as China to reduce or limit resource exports to Japan, Japan will face further financial difficulties.

Coal, for example, Japan imported from China each year to be a lot of coal, coal integrated in the meetings are held at once. Since 1980, the coal supply contract between China and Japan for a longer every 5 years, the current 5-year contract will expire in a few months, now is the Chinese and Japanese long-term coal companies a new round of consultations The key point supply contract. Insiders disclosed that, under the new agreement, starting in 2011 China will supply to Japan each year from four million to six million tons coal. Specific export quotas and export prices would have been scheduled for September 28 in Okinawa, Japan, held at the Japan meeting on integrated coal finalized, but now everything has become uncertain.

At the government level to counter the Japanese, while contacts between the two countries based on mutual trust – non-governmental exchanges rapidly cooling. At present, many websites have emerged to Japan called on China to boycott Japanese goods in the post travel and purchasing. It is understood that the collision occurred, the scale of Chinese citizens traveling to Japan has been seriously affected. Recently, China announced the cancellation of Po Kin Group of people living in Japan in October program on the reduction of the Hong Kong citizens traveling to Japan. This is undoubtedly the Japanese tourism industry is a blow.

It is reported that China’s per capita consumption of tourists to Japan up to 78,000 yen (100 yen about 7.9 yuan), much higher than the 27,000 Americans, 47,000 Japanese yen and the French, Japanese yen, the Japanese tourism industry has become a major consumer groups. After the ruling Democratic Party of Japan has been vigorously VJC policy and hopes to Chinese tourists from the current about 100 million people, 6 to 600 million years later.

Unpredictable consequences for Sino-Japanese friction

China, Japan, the series of provocations and counter-measures, making the Sino-Japanese political and economic to the civil aspects of the results accumulated over the years is gradually wither. As the East Asian Institute National University of Singapore Cheng Yung years pointed out, the behavior of the Japanese long-term interests of its useless, because Japan’s economic recovery without China.

Now, Japan seems to have finally some sit still. According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese government is studying how to restore relations with China as soon as possible countermeasures. Japan, a member of Congress, said: “The time is not much left for us, we must in APEC (APEC) Conference, to ease relations with China.” This shows that Japan hopes to ease 11 months ago with China relations because Japan concerned about China’s leaders may not attend the APEC meeting held in Yokohama, Japan, or shorten the meeting time and date to cancel a series of ministerial-level dialogue, which outcome would be greatly reduced.

However, Hong Kong, “Sing Tao Daily” website on the 20th of an article that the Japanese attitude of this is stronger than ever, but involved the sovereignty issue, China has no room to maneuver, how to resolve the incident, is difficult to predict . The article also cited the new Japanese Yen, vice president of Overseas Chinese security as saying: “Sino-Japanese relations contradictions from the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine as the history of ethics dispute pan, transfer to the practical significance of territorial sovereignty dispute. “Deputy Secretary-General of China Society of Military Science, Major General Luo is also expected in Japan this tit for tat, with unforeseeable consequences.

Tags: Diaoyu Island, Diaoyu Islands, Japan, Zhan Qixiong